WILL SOCIAL MEDIA CHANGE CHINA ?

Surely this has got to be the obvious question in light of the tectonic shifts reshaping the Maghreb?

Is the end game (of this social media phenomenon),  not the demise of the last autocratic regime of any substance ?   ( there are others that will go – but are they as important ? No.  )

There are so many factors at play in the next scene of this incredible drama.   Saudi Arabia has made an offer to buy Facebook  for the ‘princely’ sum of $150bn and hence remove any threat it may pose to stirring unrest in the country.  ( http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=228583) ( BIG JOKE !!!)  Seems like an expensive mistake by King Abdullah if Zuckerburg and Co are foolish enough to be bamboozled by Goldman Sachs into accepting the offer.    If he thinks that FB is the only way that revolutions are coordinated then he is being badly advised.

You only have to read Bernard Henri Levy’s excellent analysis of what transpired in Egypt leading up to the uprising to understand the extent of the ingenuity of a determined disenfranchised population to rid themselves of their ‘leaders’.  (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bernardhenri-levy/egypt-year-zero_b_828455.html)
By combining the power of telephony with that of the Internet they created ‘speak2tweet’ to circumvent the Web police.   The rest as they say ‘ is History’.

Surely the same could happen in China.   Although this applies to Iran and Saudi Arabia not to mention the myriad other Maghreb /ME countries where dissent is fomenting from Jordan to Yemen to Morocco and even Qatar -  China is far more interesting.

This would be the prize.

In one fell swoop we would have almost 20% of humanity freed from the oppression of an autocratic undemocratic regime.   Who knows what would replace it but one would hope that it would be a system – not a liberal Western democracy – but some hybrid that allows for more personal freedoms and participation in the political process.

China cannot maintain a 9 or 10% growth rate and thereby generate the wealth that takes people out of poverty on an indefinite basis.   The  environmental burden on the land and the air is not sustainable,  the clamour for higher wages gets ever louder and there have been many job losses in the cities because of the financial crisis.  During 2009/10 over 50m lost their jobs in the cities on the East coast and returned to the farms inland.   Thus there were 50m fewer providers and more mouths to feed with less food.   China will struggle to feed its population if it does not colonize sufficient land in Africa (particularly) to supplement its current sources.    Hence the indecent haste with which it is currently doing deals across Africa, to not only tie up commodities to feed its industrial engine but also,  to secure arable land. (Only about 15% of China’s land is arable and it reduces as the population grows)

So what are the authorities in China doing about this ?   In addition to becoming the  Worlds 21st Century Colonizing power  - China is making a huge investment in transport infrastructure inside China to ensure that food can be delivered efficiently.  Rail and air infrastructure in particular is the main focus.   There has also been a massive investment in shipping cargo capacity to ensure that they can move the goods (commodities including food)  back to China from their economic colonies.   The NPC (National Peoples Congress) is to be held on 5 March in Beijing and no doubt economic issues will be high on the agenda.  However I suspect that they will also discuss the events of the last few weeks and months in the Arab world and what it could mean for China.

There was an anonymous call for protests in China but the police have so far pre-empted any action. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/27/china-jasmine-revolution-beijing-police). This is no doubt a portent of things to come.

The Telegraph reported that :
"We invite every participant to stroll, watch or even just pretend to pass by," said a letter published on Boxun, a foreign-based website that is banned in China. "As long as you are present, the authoritarian government will be shaking with fear". It was the second weekend in a row that protests were planned.
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8350709/Heavy-handed-reaction-to-Chinas-Jasmine-protests.html)

So will the power of social media come to bear on the World’s largest oppressive regime and how long will it take.?    Will the economic growth of the last 30 years together with the massive connectivity of mobile phones and Internet become the double-edged sword that leads to the demise of the Chinese political machine that has managed the economic growth so well and so tightly.

Watch this space.  This promises to be a bigger year than 1989 – in more ways than one.